H1N1 pandemic fears to maintain lofty US flu vaccination levels
US demand for influenza vaccines will remain high in the coming decade, following a post-flu pandemic spike, predicts business intelligence provider GlobalData.
According to the company’s latest epidemiology report, seasonal influenza vaccine demand will increase from the 142 million expected for 2012 to 158 million in 2022, representing an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.2%.
After the H1N1 (originally named ‘swine flu’) pandemic claimed thousands of lives across the US in 2009, the number of those vaccinated annually climbed significantly – from 24% in 2007 to 41% in 2010 for citizens aged 5-64 years – according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The new GlobalData report says that the primary driver for the predicted growth in influenza vaccine demand will be a general increase in the US population and the corresponding rise in those classed as high-risk, such as the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions.
Of the nine major markets explored in the report (the US, Japan, India, China, and the top five European economies), India is expected to exhibit the greatest surge in vaccine demand over the next 10 years, climbing at a AGR of 2.1%. However, despite this relative growth, GlobalData estimates that the percentage of influenza-vaccinated citizens in the country will total a meager 1.7% of the population by 2022.
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